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In Russia, a Shortage Triggers Soviet Habits

In Russia, a Shortage Triggers Soviet Habits
James Hill for The New York Times

Russian supermarkets are well-stocked these days, but a sudden scarcity of buckwheat, a beloved staple, has many in a panic.

MOSCOW — Galina Litvyak had stopped by the kiosk down the road, wandered through nearby supermarkets and badgered friends for the latest rumors. Nobody knew where to find it. All over her middle-class neighborhood, the stores were filled with an ample selection of goods, reflecting just how much Moscow has changed over the last two decades. With one exception.

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Pool photo by Mikhail Klimentyev

President Dmitri A. Medvedev has visited provincial centers trying to assure the country that the government is working to alleviate the situation.

The Great Buckwheat Shortage of 2010 was not letting up.

As if the summer’s brutal heat, forest fires and drought were not enough, this country is now suffering through one final bit of weather-related misery, a scarcity of a beloved staple that is causing a kind of national time warp. Russians like Ms. Litvyak, 72, a retired bookkeeper, are falling back on scrounging habits honed under Communism. And not liking it.

“I cannot locate buckwheat anywhere, and if I could, it would be too expensive for me to buy it,” she said as she entered a sprawling supermarket called Perekrestok (Intersection), where she would again be disappointed. “I went from store to store. I would ask, ‘When is the buckwheat coming in?’ and they would say, we don’t know, it’s because of the heat or because of the drought, or something like that. There is no buckwheat anywhere.”

Such complaints may seem trivial, but the authorities are taking them very seriously. Dating back to the czars, public discontent over shortages — of flour or sausage, table salt or vodka — has often touched off political instability in Russia.

When the Kremlin orders the riot police to break up opposition rallies, most people here tend not to care. But Russians eat buckwheat all day long, turned into a hot cereal for breakfast, a side dish with meat, stuffing, pancakes and in myriad other ways. Deprive them of it for any lengthy period, and the reaction could be fierce.

Several times in recent days, President Dmitri A. Medvedev has brought up the buckwheat shortage in visits to provincial centers, trying to assure the country that the government is working to alleviate it. He warned that law-enforcement agencies would crack down on those who manipulate the buckwheat market.

On Monday, Mr. Medvedev made a public appearance at a convenience store in Voronezh, 300 miles south of Moscow, where he questioned the clerk about the recent rise in prices for basic food. “Do you have any buckwheat?” he asked.

“Right now, there’s no buckwheat,” she responded.

He settled for some loaves of bread.

The buckwheat crop was undoubtedly affected by the drought, which is likely to cut overall grain production by about a third. But officials from the Kremlin on down insist that there are sufficient quantities of buckwheat available for Russian consumers, especially now that the government has banned grain exports until at least 2011 in order to stabilize the domestic market.

So suspicion has fallen on panic-buying, hoarding and speculation — practices that also hark back to Soviet times. Tales have abounded in recent days of wholesalers squirreling away storehouses of buckwheat to keep prices high, or of truckers scooping up all the available supply in some regions and then selling it in others at high markups.

“We need to reduce this panic-buying, including by explaining what is going on,” Mr. Medvedev said last week. “Today, I was speaking with some people — they also understand that it’s panic-buying, it’s speculation. But many people, especially the elderly, remember that if something is disappearing, then you have to immediately buy it, because later on there won’t be any.”

Before the summer, buckwheat typically retailed for no more than 50 cents a pound in Moscow. Now it is a $1 a pound or more, if it can be foraged at all. For the poor or the elderly, like Ms. Litvyak, whose pension is $350 a month, the current price stings.

Buckwheat is not as central to the Russian diet as wheat, but it is considered more of a distinctly Russian food, a hearty plant that flourishes on the Siberian steppes. Generations of children have been raised on the stuff, which is valued for its nutrients, and school lunchrooms seem to go through it by the ton. (While buckwheat is much less popular in the United States, people of Eastern European descent might know it as kasha, often served with mushrooms, onions or bowtie noodles.)

“For a lot of Russians, this is problem No. 1 now — where are you going to get buckwheat?” said Oksana Sidneva, 32, who was also at the Perekrestok supermarket. “It’s very healthy for our children, it has vitamins, it’s good for them. In America, you have nothing like this, right?”

Her son, Dima, 13, chimed in, “It’s the only cooked cereal that I will eat.”

The shortage is especially jarring because supermarkets and big box stores in Moscow and many other metropolitan areas have almost everything else, dispelling any possible notion that the-customer-is-always-wrong retailing of the Soviet era endures.

At the Perekrestok, a branch of a major chain, the aisle where buckwheat is usually located had stacks of numerous varieties of flour, rice, beans, lentils and chick peas. Nearby sections offer most, though certainly not all, of the products stocked in any American supermarket, from cheddar cheese to cherry tomatoes to potato chips, at similar prices.

Irina Yasina, an economist and commentator, said the buckwheat shortage demonstrated how Russians were scarred by Soviet hardships.

“The reaction to this is absolutely Soviet — it is a classic, Soviet-style panic,” Ms. Yasina said. “Remember, it has been only 20 years since the Soviet collapse. I am 46 years old. For 20 years, I have lived under normal conditions. But the rest of the time, I lived under conditions of total shortages. And habits acquired during childhood are stronger than any others. It becomes almost a reflex.”

Still, not everyone has been fretting. Some elderly Russians pointed out that the Soviet experience had endowed them with another characteristic: a stoicism that was rooted in the belief that this, too, would be weathered.

“I lived through World War II, when we had nothing to eat, only two potatoes a day,” said Valentina Novikova, 74, a retired teacher. “In the 1980s, there were such shortages, we stood on such lines. So if there are shortages of buckwheat — well, it’s nonsense. We lived through that, and we will live through this.”

 

 

Russia's economic growth lowest among BRIC: report

MOSCOW, Aug. 20 (Xinhua) -- Russia's economic growth was the slowest among the BRIC countries, which also groups China, Brazil and India, Moscow's Vedomosti daily reported Friday.

According to Russia's statistical agency Rosstat, Russian gross domestic product (GDP) rose in the second quarter of 2010 by only 5.2 percent year-on-year, while China's GDP rose by 10.3 percent, India's by 8.9 percent and Brazil's by 11.3 percent.

However, over the period, the Russian economy grew faster than the United States (3.2 percent), Japan (1.9 percent), Germany (3.7 percent) and France (1.7 percent), the newspaper reported.

The latest global crisis hurt Russia not solely due to a drop in oil prices in 2009 but as a result of a late anti-crisis response by the government, a poor investment climate and bad macro-management, experts said.

English.news.cn   2010-08-21 06:03:21

"Breathing Pixie Dust" — Investing in Russia

Written by William F. Jasper
Thursday, 05 August 2010 14:08

"Maybe I'm breathing the same pixie dust, but there's real momentum for this," says Esther Dyson, in a June 25 online article for Foreign Policy magazine reporting on Russian President Dmitry Medvedev's visit to California's Silicon Valley. Dyson, a globally celebrated technology guru, is a major promoter of Skolkovo, the ambitious project near Moscow that Kremlin leaders intend to make into a high-tech research and production center. (See Obama's Russia Adviser Michael McFaul and the Russian Spies.)

A one-time member of the Skolkovo advisory board, Dyson is the founder of EDventure holdings, which has invested heavily in Russian start-up companies. She sits on the advisory board of AmBAR, the American Business Association of Russian-speaking Professionals, which organized a major summit of American venture capital investors in Russia this past May. Dyson and AmBAR also were involved in facilitating Medvedev's tech-shopping trip to the United States in June.

For all her tech savvyness, supposed business acumen, and high-flying global connections, Dyson seems hopelessly star-struck with Medvedev, and unrealistically optimistic about his potential for changing Russia. The Foreign Policy article reports:

She was present at some of the events in Silicon Valley and was struck by Medvedev's level of engagement and bonhomie. "He is so sensible, he understands the issues," she said. "He's responsive, thoughtful, not at all bombastic. He gets the culture. You could stick him in a cubicle at Google, and no one would notice. But the issues persist, so the question is, can his mentality be expanded to everyone?"

Apparently, Dyson and other Medvedev cheerleaders were quite taken with the Russian President's easy delivery of scripted lines during his U.S. tour. On taking leave of California's Governor Schwarzenegger, Medvedev predictably borrowed quips from Arnold's action-hero movies. "I'll be back," he told Schwarzenegger. And with a wink, he added "Hasta la vista — baby."

Esther Dyson is typical of the American elites who promote East-West convergence and claim to see a bright silver lining in every dark cloud over the Kremlin, a new blossoming of freedom in every new concentration of power by the KGB/FSB. A member of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) and an advisory board member of the Soros Medical Internet Project, Dyson is also well connected to the powers-that-be in Russia, including Putin, Medvedev, and unsavory oligarchs such as Yuri Milner, Alisher Usmanov, Roman Abramovich, and Viktor Vekselberg.

Bulgarian President Georgi Parvanov has appointed Dyson to the President's IT Advisory Council (PITAC). Bulgaria remains one of the most corrupt and oppressive regimes of the former Soviet empire, and President Parvanov is a veteran of the Bulgarian secret police, a subsidiary of the Soviet KGB.

Like other advocates of investing in Russia, Dyson claims to be a firm believer in free markets, transparency, openness, and accountability. However, she is perfectly willing to partner with entities run by the Russian state — such as RUSNANO, for instance — and to look the other way as the KGB/FSB operatives of the Putin-Medvedev government take down other outside investors. While claiming they are helping foster free-market reform in Russia and other parts of the former Soviet Union, many investors are actually helping brutal regimes fasten even more technologically efficient oppression upon their citizens.

Gangsters R Us

Goldman Sachs and other Wall Street insiders may qualify as gangsters in a certain sense, but they still do not have the raw power to seize property at gunpoint and murder with virtual impunity, as the "godfathers of the Kremlin" do.

Before investors fall for the latest Russia seduction — and before taxpayers allow themselves to be signed on unwittingly as guarantors — it would behoove all to be aware of some very recent history of the perils of doing business in Russia.

Bill Browder, CEO and founder of Hermitage Capital Management, was one of the largest Western investors in Russia. He is the grandson of Earl Browder, who was General Secretary of the Communist Party, USA during much of the 1930s and '40s. For awhile Bill Browder also was "breathing the pixie dust." He was a friend of Putin, Medvedev, and the Kremlin's ruling clique. Or so he thought. For the past several years, Bill Browder has been warning the world about the corruption permeating the supposedly reformed government of Putin and Medvedev, and the dangers of trying to do business in Russia.

 

The Browder/Hermitage case is not an isolated example. Even the big boys, with supposed inside political connections get taken down. As happened with British Petroleum, in the TNK-BP joint venture.

More recently, Yevgeny Chichvarkin, who appears to be one of Russia's legitimate entrepreneurs, was forced to flee Russia and seek asylum in England. Unlike the state-approved oligarchs who became instant billionaires by "privatizing" massive state assets, Chichvarkin built his mobile phone business from the ground up, starting with nothing.

Chichvarkin claims that in retribution for challenging the Putin power structure, his mother was brutally beaten to death. Russian officials claim that she died of a heart attack from natural causes.

Perhaps the "pixie dust" will protect Esther Dyson — for awhile, anyway. But many of the Skolkovo investors are sure to get the Hermitage/BP treatment, or worse. And even favored "angel investors" such as Dyson may find out they need more than pixie dust to survive in Russia.

Russia Moves to Sell Shares in State Companies

Russia Moves to Sell Shares in State Companies

MOSCOW — The Russian government, which just a few years ago was salting away billions of dollars in oil revenue, is now confronting such a gaping budget deficit that ministers approved a wide-ranging plan Wednesday to sell-off state property, senior officials said.

Pool photo by

Prime Minister Vladimir Putin of Russia chairs a meeting of the government commission on budget estimates in Moscow Wednesday.

It would be, by some estimates, the largest privatization program in Russia since the post-Communist sell-off of the 1990s. Still, the government plans to sell only minority stakes in the companies, retaining control while letting private investors share a larger part of the risks and profits.

Privatizations of some type been expected since the onset of the financial crisis, but the scale of the plan suggested that the crisis in public finance elsewhere in Europe is catching up with Russia, too. Until recently, the Russian government under former president and now prime minister, Vladimir V. Putin, had been bulking up its share in the economy through nationalizations.

The program approved Wednesday involves 11 companies, including the national oil company, the national railroad, a fleet of merchant marine vessels, two state banks and a company managing hydroelectric dams, said Aleksei Uvarov, the director of the property department in the ministry of economy.

Some of the companies, in fact, grew or were created out of the nationalizations. But officials, and independent economists, say now is a good a time to let the pendulum swing the other way, and sell to private investors willing to buy.

“Commodity prices are high, so asset prices are high, and at the same time Russia needs cash,” Sergei M. Guriyev, the rector of New Economic School in Moscow, and a member of the board of Sberbank, said in a telephone interview. “So this is the right time to sell.”

There will be marked differences compared with the privatizations of the 1990s, he said. The prices will be higher because Russia now has an infrastructure of investment banks and stock exchanges to manage sales on market terms.

“It’s a big, big move in the right direction,” Mr. Guriyev said.

The plan was considered at a meeting Wednesday in Moscow, chaired by Mr. Putin, who afterward remarked that Russia would work to eliminate budget deficits by 2015. But he did not delve into the details of the privatization program that will include the state oil company, Rosneft.

After years of oil-driven surpluses, the Russian government had been squeaking by over the last two years by borrowing and by drawing down its savings. The deficit this year, for example, is expected to reach 5.9 percent of gross domestic product, according to the International Monetary Fund.

While manageable by the standards of other governments during the recession, it is a woeful reversal for Russia, and apparently led to the decision to sell the stakes. Oil money transformed Russia over the last decade, creating a boom town out of Moscow, lifting millions from poverty and establishing what had looked like rock-solid public finances.

Russia still holds $467 billion in gold and foreign currency reserves, saved during the oil boom. Spending this money on the budget, however, could cause the ruble to appreciate, hurting local industry — and would leave the cupboards bare for Russia if oil prices dip again.

A main culprit of the deficit is rising military spending, according to the Russian business newspaper , Vedomosti. Military outlays are expected to rise 13 percent in 2011, suggesting Russian officials had to chose between two sacred cows, the military and the government’s petroleum and industrial assets.

Education and debt service are also expanding items in the Russian budget.

Russia’s finance minister, Aleksei L. Kudrin, told reporters Wednesday that the sale of shares in state companies would raise $29 billion over three years. While the largest plan for privatizations since the 1990s, a far smaller portion of the industrial base will be handed over this time, at far higher prices, and only in the form of minority stakes.

Many of the valuable oil fields in Rosneft have already been privatized and nationalized once before. That alone might seem a good reason to give investors pause.

But the companies are profitable enough to generate interest all the same. Also, Mr. Putin’s successor, Dmitri A. Medvedev, has said he would like to see a lesser role for the government in the economy.

“I think there is a change of heart about state ownership,” Peter Westin, chief equity strategist at Aton, an investment bank in Moscow, said. Whether investors buy will come down to price, he said.

In recent years, a practice of raising the price on Russian initial public offerings has meant that half of newly issued shares in Russia lose value after they are floated, Mr. Westin said, another consideration for potential buyers.

About 10 percent of Rosneft is now traded on the London Stock Exchange, after an initial public offering that went ahead although Rosneft’s core assets had belonged to Yukos until that company was bankrupted in a contentious tax dispute. Another 24.1 percent of Rosneft could be made available to investors in the new round of privatizations, according to Russian media reports.

The shares in the state companies might be sold in initial or secondary offerings or to strategic investors.

From about 2003 until the onset of the economic crisis in 2008, more and more of the economy fell under state control. First oil and gas companies, then arms factories, airplane manufacturing plants, cars companies and other enterprises were seized by the state, under various pretexts.

State control is particularly prevalent among the larger companies that tend to be traded on stock exchanges. For example, about 60 percent of the market capitalization, or total value of the stocks, of companies traded in Moscow are controlled by the state.

Russia Links Its Economy With Close Neighbors

MOSCOW — The leaders of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan took their longest stride to date Monday in linking their economies, forming a customs union that they say will soon evolve into a more ambitious common market, with Russia at its hub.

The agreement, for now, eases trade between the three large former Soviet economies without fully abolishing all duties and tariffs.

The three leaders also stopped short of reaching a common position on membership in the World Trade Organization, something Russia as an individual country has been trying to negotiate since shortly after the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991.

The agreement, marked with much fanfare in the Kazakh capital of Astana, eliminates obstacles to trade and investment that went up after the Soviet Union fell. That alone, analysts said, could give a new fillip to the region’s economies by introducing them to greater competition, which should ultimately benefit consumers.

The signing was also a victory for Russia’s leaders, who have made the customs union a pet project for a variety of reasons, notably because Moscow stands to benefit as a natural hub for regional finance and trade.

The Russian president, Dmitri A. Medvedev, said at the signing ceremony that the three countries would try to open their economies fully by the beginning of 2012. The first step is harmonizing customs rules. Later, they will discuss the free movement of labor and capital.

“A lot of work remains before the formation of a common economic space,” Mr. Medvedev said, according to comments published on the Kremlin’s Web site. “But, considering that it really is a beneficial and interesting endeavor, I’m sure we can agree on everything.”

For Russia, the push for a free trade pact that began during the financial crisis marks a change of tack in its economic policies in the former Soviet space. Russia, which found itself in the favorable position of holding hard currency reserves even as Western lenders were pulling out of the region during the crisis, moved away from loans and direct subsidies of fuel and toward an emphasis on more sweeping economic integration.

“This is a very positive paradigm shift in how Russia deals with the near abroad,” Yaroslav Lissovolik, the chief economist at Deutsche Bank in Moscow, said in a telephone interview. “Previously, it was a one-way street where Russia was giving out economic favors in exchange for political favors.”

A free trade pact, in contrast, is an economic strategy to elevate the prospects of the entire region in which Russia is a natural center of gravity.

In the short term, Russian farmers could suffer from competition from Belarus, and Russian steelsmiths from competition from Kazakhstan. But in the longer term, the exposure to competition will help Russia diversify away from its dependence on natural resources while elevating the role of Moscow as a regional financial and business center.

Russian banks, Mr. Lissovolik said, were particularly interested in gaining access to Belarus’s large, unreformed, Soviet-style economy as it prepared to privatize major industries in need of funding because of the global downturn.

Russia also holds a powerful lure to bring other former Soviet states into the union, if it chooses: access to its domestic labor market. With its diminishing population but rising oil wealth, Russia is the world’s second-largest importer of labor after the United States, according to United Nations estimates.

Already on Monday, the leaders of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan — two countries heavily reliant on migrant labor remittances from Russia — said they were interested in joining the union.

The union’s success in drawing members besides Kazakhstan and Belarus will depend largely on how temptin the Russian-backed project appears to countries that may have to choose between this and other options. Ukraine, for example, is also pursuing trade agreements with the European Union that are incompatible with the Russian-backed free trade space.

Also, candidates will surely have in mind former failed efforts to create free trade areas on the territory of the former Soviet Union. The Commonwealth of Independent States, the Eurasian Economic Community and the union state of Russia and Belarus all made little headway toward creating a true common market in the region.

For now, Ukraine has said it will remain outside the union despite the election this year of president, Viktor F. Yanukovich, who is on friendlier terms with the Kremlin than his predecessor was. Ukraine, a W.T.O. member, could not join the union because Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan are still applicants to the global trade group.

Prime Minister Vladimir V. Putin said last summer that Russia would abandon its unilateral membership bid and instead seek to join together with Belarus and Kazakhstan in the customs union — an apparent signal that Russia had other options if W.T.O. conditions were seen as too onerous.

Russia, though, has since backtracked and said it would pursue W.T.O. membership alone while coordinating with other members of the newly formed union. On Monday, Russia’s first deputy prime minister, Igor Shuvalov, said the three presidents would decide on their strategy and make it public within days.

The agreement Monday was to have been in effect by July 1. However, Belarus had held out amid a dispute over tariffs that Russia charges on crude oil exports delivered to Belarussian refineries — the cause of a brief oil pipeline shutdown last winter.

The signing went ahead, but the disagreement apparently was never resolved: A Belarussian official said the tariffs would be abolished immediately, while Mr. Shuvalov said the entire package of treaties forming a common economic space would have to be in place first.

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